“Approximation and Uncertainty” in Patent Damages: The Federal Circuit Draws the Admissibility-Weight Line

Damages have become one of the most closely watched—and fiercely litigated—issues in modern patent litigation. In recent decisions, the Federal Circuit has sharpened its focus on district courts’ gatekeeping obligations for damages expert testimony and seemingly signaled a greater willingness to police analyses that rest on unsupported assumptions. But proving patent damages under the governing reasonable-royalty framework inevitably involves judgment calls and imprecision. Experts frequently must piece together a hypothetical royalty from real-world licenses negotiated under different circumstances and incomplete or noisy product data. A recent precedential decision, Willis Electric Co. v. Polygroup Ltd., No. 2024-2118, 2026 WL 438657 (Fed. Cir. Feb. 17, 2026), offers a useful guide to where the Federal Circuit is drawing the line between issues of admissibility (for the court) and issues of weight and credibility (for the jury).

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